Knowing What You Don’t Know
Growth and improvement of an organization is likely to involve doing something in which the company does not have prior experience. The degree of success depends on the thoroughness of the plan and identification of risks including a category for “What We Don’t Know.”
The biggest environmental disaster in U.S. history is the broken well that is spewing 20 million gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico for 40 days and counting. There is no estimate of when the spill will be stopped. All of the measures attempted so far have failed. Why?
What they knew
BP and Transocean knew how to drill oil wells in the ocean. They also knew how to shut down a well in an emergency if there was too much methane gas. They knew how to monitor for excessive gas. They knew that it is possible that a well would need to be shut down remotely. They were also aware that they were drilling 5,000 feet — almost a mile – beneath the ocean.
What they didn’t know
They did not know whether the emergency procedures and methods would work at a depth of 5,000 feet. Scuba divers and even snorkelers know that just 10 feet below the surface, the pressure is different. At 100 feet below, a temperature difference is noticeable. As one goes deeper, the pressure increases greatly and the temperature drops radically. At 5,000 feet, the pressure is 2,500 pounds per square inch. These two elements, extreme cold and extreme pressure, are serious and important factors to consider when operating at an extreme depth.
For whatever reasons, in spite of these unknowns, BP did not employ all known measures to shut down the well in an emergency. The remote activation to shut down the well was not possible because there was no remote emergency switch. Whether it would have worked is unknown, but it would have been the last resort attempt to stop an out of control well.
Revealing the Unknown
What’s the best way to figure out the unknown? Here are five ways:
- Get more people involved in review. Get as many individuals from many different parts of the organization that will be touched directly and indirectly by the project. The value is that they are looking at it from their point of view within the business. Encourage them to ask “what if” questions because they can also suggest solutions.
- Look for areas of expertise that are missing. When attempting something new or different, honestly assess the areas in which expertise is lacking. This is difficult because individuals are often not realistic about their capabilities. Here is where a little knowledge can put the project at high risk. While it may be more expensive, it is a lot less expensive than repair work. Bringing in expertise serves a dual purpose: 1) providing the expertise needed and 2) internal people learn and gain experience.
- Seek clues in related or parallel industries. Other industry organizations may already be doing what you are attempting to do or close to it. Find out what their best practices are and what they do to mitigate risk.
- Analyze why and how this is different from what’s been done before. Is it a similar process or something completely new? There may be pieces of the process that exist in different areas of the organization. Examine those and modify them if possible to minimize new risks.
- Use an outsider to do a walk through. Someone outside the organization has an unbiased view and makes no assumptions. An outsider can ask questions for which internal folks may automatically assume the answers. By having internal people explain the project, they re-think what is being done.
Luckily, most of us will not have to face plugging a giant hole a mile down in the freezing ocean floor, but we will always be better prepared by knowing as much as possible about the unknown.